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February 13, 2024

Predicting the Future of Cyber Security and Cyber Threats

Read about cyber security predictions and cyber threats in 2024. Staying up-to-date on cyber attacks and cyber security is vital to all organizations.
Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
The Darktrace Threat Research Team
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13
Feb 2024

2024 Cyber Threat Predictions

After analyzing the observed threats and trends that have affected customers across the Darktrace fleet in the second half of 2023, the Darktrace Threat Research team have made a series of predictions. These assessments highlight the threats that are expected to impact Darktrace customers and the wider threat landscape in 2024.  

1. Initial access broker malware, especially loader malware, is likely to be a prominent threat.  

Initial access malware such as loaders, information stealers, remote access trojans (RATs), and downloaders, will probably remain some of the most relevant threats to most organizations, especially when noted in the context that many are interoperable, tailorable Malware-as-a-Service (MaaS) tools.  

These types of malware often serve as a gateway for threat actors to compromise a target network before launching subsequent, and often more severe, attacks. Would-be cyber criminals are now able to purchase and deploy these malware without the need for technical expertise.  

2. Infrastructure complexity will increase SaaS attacks and leave cloud environments vulnerable.

The increasing reliance on SaaS solutions and platforms for business operations, coupled with larger attack surfaces than ever before, make it likely that attackers will continue targeting organizations’ cloud environments with account takeovers granting unauthorized access to privileged accounts. These account hijacks can be further exploited to perform a variety of nefarious activities, such as data exfiltration or launching phishing campaigns.  

It is paramount for organizations to not only fortify their SaaS environments with security strategies including multifactor authentication (MFA), regular monitoring of credential usage, and strict access control, but moreover augment SaaS security using anomaly detection.  

3. The prevalence and evolution of ransomware will surge.

The Darktrace Threat Research team anticipates a surge in Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) attacks, marking a shift away from conventional ransomware. The uptick in RaaS observed in 2023 evidences that ransomware itself is becoming increasingly accessible, lowering the barrier to entry for threat actors. This surge also demonstrates how lucrative RaaS is for ransomware operators in the current threat landscape, further reinforcing a rise in RaaS.  

This development is likely to coincide with a pivot away from traditional encryption-centric ransomware tactics towards more sophisticated and advanced extortion methods. Rather than relying solely on encrypting a target’s data for ransom, malicious actors are expected to employ double or even triple extortion strategies, encrypting sensitive data but also threatening to leak or sell stolen data unless their ransom demands are met.  

4. Threat actors will continue to rely on living-off-the-land techniques.

With evolving sophistication of security tools and greater industry adoption of AI techniques, threat actors have focused more and more on living-off-the-land. The extremely high volume of vulnerabilities discovered in 2023 highlights threat actors’ persistent need to compromise trusted organizational mechanisms and infrastructure to gain a foothold in networks. Although inbox intrusions remain prevalent, the exploitation of edge infrastructure has demonstrably expanded compared to previously endpoint-focused attacks.

Given the prevalence of endpoint evasion techniques and the high proportion of tactics utilizing native programs, threat actors will likely progressively live off the land, even utilizing new techniques or vulnerabilities to do so, rather than relying on unidentified malicious programs which evade traditional detection.

5. The “as-a-Service” marketplace will contribute to an increase in multi-phase compromises.

With the increasing “as-a-Service” marketplaces, it is likely that organizations will face more multi-phase compromises, where one strain of malware is observed stealing information and that data is sold to additional threat actors or utilized for second and/or third-stage malware or ransomware.  

This trend builds on the concept of initial access brokers but utilizes basic browser scraping and data harvesting to make as much profit throughout the compromise process as possible. This will likely result in security teams observing multiple malicious tools and strains of malware during incident response and/or multi-functional malware, with attack cycles and kill chains morphing into less linear and more abstract chains of activity. This makes it more essential than ever for security teams to apply an anomaly approach to stay ahead of asymmetric threats.  

6. Generative AI will let attackers phish across language barriers.

Classic phishing scams play a numbers game, targeting as many inboxes as possible and hoping that some users take the bait, even if there are spelling and grammar errors in the email. Now, Generative AI has reduced the barrier for entry, so malicious actors do not have to speak English to produce a convincing phishing email.  

In 2024, we anticipate this to extend to other languages and regions. For example, many countries in Asia have not yet been greatly impacted by phishing. Yet Generative AI continues to develop, with improved data input yielding improved output. More phishing emails will start to be generated in various languages with increasing sophistication.    

7. AI regulation and data privacy rules will stifle AI adoption.

AI regulation, like the European Union’s AI Act, is starting to be implemented around the world. As policies continue to come out about AI and data privacy, practical and pragmatic AI adoption becomes more complex.  

Businesses will likely have to take a second look at AI they are adopting into their tech stacks to consider what may happen if a tool is suddenly deprecated because it is no longer fit for purpose or loses the approvals in place. Many will also have to use completely different supply chain evaluations from their usual ones based on developing compliance registrars. This increased complication may make businesses reticent to adopt innovative AI solutions as legislation scrambles to keep up.  

Learn more about observed threat trends and future predictions in the 2023 End of Year Threat Report

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
The Darktrace Threat Research Team

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June 2, 2026

Stopping Stealth Attacks with Precision: How Núclea Prevented a Breach Without Disruption

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Núclea is a Brazilian data and technology company that supports the country’s financial system by delivering digital services exclusively to banks and financial institutions. Operating in an environment where trust, availability, and data integrity are critical, the company faces a threat landscape that has evolved rapidly—particularly with the rise of AI-driven cyberattacks.

Brazil has experienced a wave of successful cyber incidents targeting financial institutions, many of them enabled by insiders or compromised credentials. The result was a noticeable shift in attacker strategy: instead of focusing on end customers, threat actors began targeting the institutions and platforms that underpin the financial ecosystem itself.

“Attacks became far more directed and contextual,” explains Guilherme, who leads incident response within Núclea’s security platform engineering team. “They weren’t noisy or obviously malicious—they were precise, patient, and designed to blend into normal operations.”

That precision was on full display in January 2026, when Núclea faced one of the most convincing phishing attacks the team had seen.

A real attack, built on trust and context

The attack began with a seemingly routine email.

It was sent from a real Brazilian government institution, using legitimate infrastructure and valid credentials that were later confirmed to have been compromised. Núclea had an established, ongoing relationship with this organization, and the email’s language, tone, and subject matter aligned perfectly with the type of communication the recipient team handled every day.

Attached to the email was a PDF document containing content that looked entirely legitimate.

The problem? A single URL embedded inside that PDF.

“The message itself was correct. The sender was real. The context was familiar. Even the document content made sense,” Guilherme explains. “There was just one small element that didn’t belong.”

That small detail was enough to initiate a full attack chain.

What the attackers were trying to do

If clicked, the URL would have downloaded a malicious payload designed to:

  • Collect information about the user and device
  • Identify where the system was located within the financial ecosystem
  • Install remote access tools to maintain control
  • Deploy an infostealer to extract sensitive data
  • Execute anti-forensic scripts to erase traces of the intrusion

In other words, it was a carefully engineered operation designed for persistence and stealth, not immediate disruption.

The attack also employed urgency—a classic social engineering technique. When the link didn’t open as expected, employees requested assistance from the security team, insisting the document was important and needed to be accessed quickly.

This is precisely the kind of scenario where traditional security tools struggle: almost everything about the interaction is legitimate.

Where Darktrace made the difference

Instead of blocking the entire message or relying on known indicators of compromise, Darktrace focused on behavioral context.

Darktrace recognized:

  • That the sending organization was normally trusted
  • That the communication pattern matched historical behavior
  • That the PDF content itself was not suspicious

But it also identified that the URL embedded within the document deviated from established behavioral patterns.

Rather than disrupting business operations, Darktrace took precise action: it rewrote the URL, preventing the malicious download while leaving the rest of the email untouched.

“When we analyzed it afterward, it became clear how dangerous the attack would have been,” says Guilherme. “But it never progressed—because Darktrace acted at exactly the right point.”

Subsequent forensic analysis confirmed the payload’s malicious intent. The attack never succeeded.

Precision over disruption

For Núclea, this incident reinforced a critical lesson: modern attacks don’t always look malicious—they hide within normal activity.

“What stands out to me is the precision,” Guilherme says. “Darktrace doesn’t rely on big, obvious signals. It’s effective in situations that fall outside the standard patterns we all know.”

Building resilience in a high trust ecosystem

For Núclea, cybersecurity is not just a defensive measure—it’s a business enabler.

Availability failures or successful breaches in the financial ecosystem can have immediate, large-scale consequences, from financial loss to reputational damage. Preventing those outcomes protects not just Núclea, but its partners and customers as well.

“Cyber resilience means keeping the business running—even under attack,” Guilherme explains. “And that requires people, processes, and technology working together.”

As AI continues to accelerate both attacks and defenses, the role of security is evolving. Precision, behavioral understanding, and intelligent automation are no longer optional—they’re essential.

“The easy days were yesterday,” Guilherme says. “The challenges ahead are bigger. We need to be prepared—internally and with partners that help us build resilience.”

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June 1, 2026

Defend What You Trust: Stories from the Front Lines of Modern Cyber Defense

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Modern attacks don’t always announce themselves, follow obvious patterns, or rely on known malware. Often, they move quietly inside trusted systems, authenticated sessions, and everyday behavior.

They don’t break in. They blend in.

That’s why an AI-powered defense is essential. It turns invisible signals into actionable insights at a scale neither analysts nor traditional tools can achieve alone.

Confidence is creating risk

One of the most dangerous assumptions in cybersecurity today is that strong controls equal strong protection.

Multi-factor authentication (MFA), for example, is widely viewed as a foundational safeguard. But as the CISO for a professional sports organization explains, that confidence can be misplaced. “A lot of organizations assume that once you have MFA, those accounts are safe. That’s not true.”

In one instance, his team identified a sophisticated attack where a threat actor bypassed MFA entirely, not by breaking it, but by going around it. A user’s authenticated session was hijacked and re-used, allowing the attacker to impersonate them without triggering traditional controls.

“Darktrace picked up that a session had been re-injected by the hacker, and we were able to block it right away,” he explains.

Attackers anticipate what we miss

Even well-trained users can become entry points.

“An email bypassed our existing security tools,” shares the VP of IT at a U.S.-based risk management services provider.  “The user missed one signal and entered their credentials into a malicious site. That’s what the bad guys count on.”

The organization responded quickly, but not before damage was done. Crucially, this occurred while Darktrace was in “watch mode,” before autonomous response was fully enabled. “Darktrace would have seen that and shut it down immediately,” he notes.

Mistakes and oversights like misconfigurations, forgotten machines, and missed patches can create serious vulnerabilities.

The CIO of a utility services organization shares an instance when Darktrace detected a breach to a client’s network via their ZTNA VPN due to misconfigured MFA. “Darktrace alerted us and autonomously blocked the scanning, preventing what could have been a ransomware-type incident.”  

The most dangerous threats are already inside

The Head of Security at a global business services provider knows firsthand how blind spots can persist inside environments. His team uncovered evidence of dormant ransomware artifacts sitting unnoticed within a company’s environment ¬¬– long before modern detection was in place.

“During a routine file transfer, Darktrace flagged the suspicious activity, identified the ransomware, and immediately quarantined the server,” he recalls.  While the attack was never executed, the implication was significant: the risk existed long before it was finally detected.

Cyber threats are also successful because they take advantage of normal human behavior, exploiting moments of cognitive overload, urgency, and trust.

The Executive Director of IT and Business Applications at a pharmaceutical lab describes the time Darktrace flagged an employee logging into Microsoft 365 from Singapore, despite him being physically located in the U.S. Darktrace immediately cut off his access and within minutes revealed that the employee’s son was using a VPN to play a video game.

While the threat was benign, it demonstrated the strength of AI to use contextual information to detect threats other tools miss. The information also saved security analysts hours of investigation and minimized downtime for the employee. “That level of precision and speed isn’t just convenient, it’s game changing.”

“Unusual” behavior is the new red flag

Detecting modern threats requires an understanding of what “normal” looks like and recognizing when something subtly deviates.

One security leader  at an AI technology enterprise described a scenario in which an employee connected to a proxy service in China. The service itself was legitimate, and although traditional tools didn’t flag it, the behavior was unusual for that user specifically.

“That’s what Darktrace picked up on. The activity turned out to be benign, but without visibility into behavioral deviations, it could just as easily have been something more serious.”

AI shifts defense from reaction to anticipation

These stories point to a fundamental shift by cyber attackers, both tactically and strategically. Because traditional security tools were built to detect what’s already known, modern attacks are often:

  • Credential-based, not malware-based
  • Behavioral, not signature-based
  • Subtle, not overt

They may operate within the boundaries of what appears normal, exploiting what organizations trust, not what they block:

  • Trusted sessions
  • Legitimate services
  • Human error

This is where AI is changing the equation. Rather than relying on predefined rules or known threat signatures, AI can:

  • Establish a baseline of normal behavior
  • Detect subtle anomalies in real time
  • Act autonomously to contain potential threats

Resilience, not perfection, is the new security standard

As these frontline experiences show, the organizations that lead are those that move beyond reactive defense and embrace AI as a core part of their strategy.

It eliminates the blind spots and uncertainty, says the CISO of a professional sports organization. “If you lack visibility, you’re not managing risk, you’re assuming it. AI gives you the actionable insights needed to turn uncertainty into control.”

And it provides the speed and agility that are vital when seconds matter, says the Executive Director of IT and Business Applications. “When Darktrace alerted us at 3:00 am to a ransomware attack, it had already quarantined the affected systems, blocked the attacker’s access, and provided us with the critical details and time needed to investigate. That action likely saved us hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars.”

The modern SOC has become a cornerstone of enterprise resilience, responsible for protecting data and operational continuity while enabling digital growth and innovation. For today’s security professional, that means success is no longer measured by what they keep out, but by what they protect: revenue, reputation, and trust.

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