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January 6, 2022

The Future of Cyber Security: 2022 Predictions by Darktrace

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06
Jan 2022
Discover cyber security predictions for 2022 by Darktrace's experts. Learn how to navigate future cyber threats and enhance your security strategy!

2021 brought some of the most significant cyber-attacks in history – from the Kaseya supply chain ransomware attack to cyber-criminals attempting to poison the water supply in Florida, to the already infamous Log4Shell vulnerability.

Darktrace cyber and AI experts spent the year not only delivering various crucial AI innovations in the defensive cyber security space, but also advising over 6,500 organizations around the world on how to use this AI to fight back against sophisticated attacks in the wild – and win.

So, we asked our experts, what does 2022 have in store for cyber security?

“Software supply chain attacks become a given in 2022.”

Justin Fier, Director of Cyber Intelligence & Analytics

Our security research uncovered that the most attacked industry in 2021 was the information technology (IT) and communications sector, whereas, in 2020, it was the financial services industry. This shift may not be surprising given the high-profile software supply chain attacks on SolarWinds, Kaseya, GitLab, and, most recently, the uncovered vulnerability ‘Log4Shell’ embedded in a widely used software library that left billions of devices exposed.

Attackers see software and developer infrastructure, platforms, and providers as an entry vector into government, corporations, and critical infrastructure. Threat actors will embed malicious software throughout the software supply chain, including proprietary source code, developer repositories, open-source libraries, and more. We will likely see further supply chain attacks against software platforms and further publicized vulnerabilities.

They will also advance their email attacks to more directly hijack the communications chain with supplier account hijacks to send spear phishing emails from genuine, trusted accounts, as we saw in the November 2021 FBI account takeover.

If attackers can embed themselves at the beginning of the development process, organizations will have to detect and stop the attacker after they have gotten through. This threat reinforces the need for security to be integrated earlier in the development process and the importance of quickly containing attacks to prevent business disruption. Since these are multi-stage attacks, organizations can use AI at every step to contain and remediate the threat.

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“Ransomware in 2022: more of the same, but different.”

Marcus Fowler, Director of Strategic Threat

In parallel to the global pandemic, there has been a growing ransomware pandemic. Our researchers discovered that the number of attacks on US organizations tripled in 2021 compared to 2020, and attacks on UK organizations doubled.

This crisis brought 30 nations together to discuss a counter-ransomware initiative focused on cryptocurrency regulation, security resilience, attack disruption, and international cyber diplomacy. Despite these landmark policy efforts, even if government pressures force ransomware groups to disband or criminally charge ransomware gangs, they will continue to rebrand and crop back up with even more sophisticated techniques and capabilities.

If we let ransomware permeate, attackers will likely evolve techniques in 2022 and may target cloud service providers, and backup and archiving providers. There will come a time when this is no longer seen as a cyber inconvenience – when organizations can’t just stand there and take it anymore. Critical infrastructure organizations and businesses alike will continue to assess how quickly they can restore operations in the aftermath of an attack and how long they will be able to rely on cyber insurers to cover ransom payments and costly systems repairs.

If playing defense against ransomware is not sustainable, what is the answer? Eventually, organizations will build systems to withstand cyber-attacks. In the meantime, organizations need security software that learns, makes micro-decisions, and takes proportional responses to detect and stop attacks early enough, before data exfiltration or encryption occurs.

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“Human and AI relationships will improve with explainability.”

Max Heinemeyer, Director of Threat Hunting

Defenders have applied AI to the existential threat of cyber-attacks for nearly a decade now, from detecting threats to using autonomous micro-decision making to respond to attacks at machine speed. The breakthroughs in helping security teams perform at their most optimal state may not be through those advanced mathematical algorithms alone. In 2022, it will likely be through Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI).

The processes and methods that allow human users to comprehend and trust the results and output created by machine learning will be at the forefront in Security Operations Centers. This focus on time to understanding rather than simply time to alert will advance how companies measure security team effectiveness. There will be an increase in focus on XAI in sharp contrast with the concept of a “black box”, as security experts want to understand AI’s expected impacts and potential biases.

Examples of this include using natural language processing (NLP) to explain the hypotheses behind a cyber-attack, the investigation steps performed by AI, the outcomes of those steps, the recommended actions to take – and even how to prevent the attack from happening again.

“The ‘Great Resignation’ will drive an uptick in insider threat.”

Toby Lewis, Head of Threat Analysis

With the ‘Great Resignation’ of employees during the pandemic, we can expect to see disgruntled employees steal information or employees unintentionally taking information with them to their next job. We have also seen criminal groups attempt to recruit insiders by offering a large sum of money or a portion of the ransom.

Whether intentional or unintentional, insiders will become a growing priority for businesses in 2022. With more organizations relying on cloud communication and collaboration applications, these threats become even more difficult to detect across sprawling digital infrastructures. With employees working remotely, enforcing the return of equipment and data will become even more difficult.

Organizations will rely more heavily on security technology that understands employee behavior from multiple angles, including cloud, SaaS, user, and the endpoint. This technology automatically takes action when an employee behaves out of character – by sending emails to outside sources, accessing files they usually wouldn’t, or other anomalous activities. These approaches will work alongside new zero trust technologies and adhere to zero trust architectures to protect organizations from insider threats.

“AI innovations help defenders proactively simulate attacks.”

Nicole Eagan, Chief Strategy Officer, AI Officer

AI has delivered various crucial innovations in the defensive cyber security space for threat detection, investigation, and response. 2022 will see AI innovations expand from a focus on defense to adjacent areas, such as proactive security and attack simulations.

Recent advancements that enable AI to perform attack path modeling, adversary simulation, and continuous red teaming will enable organizations to visualize and test the most probable scenarios of concern and mitigate cyber risks with safety measures and controls. The fundamental priorities of cyber security organizations will change shape as they place more focus on emerging technologies to identify vulnerabilities, launch controlled attacks, and test their defenses.

While this so-called proactive and predictive approach to managing cyber risk hasn’t hit the boardroom just yet, it has the potential to change how companies, regulators, audit committees, and cyber insurance companies assess their future cyber risk.

Thank you to all of our subject matter experts for providing supplementary insights to support these predictions.

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Author
Justin Fier
SVP, Red Team Operations

Justin is one of the US’s leading cyber intelligence experts, and holds the position of SVP, Red Team Operations at Darktrace. His insights on cyber security and artificial intelligence have been widely reported in leading media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, CNN, The Washington Post, and VICELAND. With over 10 years’ experience in cyber defense, Justin has supported various elements in the US intelligence community, holding mission-critical security roles with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Mission Systems and Abraxas. Justin is also a highly-skilled technical specialist, and works with Darktrace’s strategic global customers on threat analysis, defensive cyber operations, protecting IoT, and machine learning.

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January 29, 2025

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Inside the SOC

Bytesize Security: Insider Threats in Google Workspace

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What is an insider threat?

An insider threat is a cyber risk originating from within an organization. These threats can involve actions such as an employee inadvertently clicking on a malicious link (e.g., a phishing email) or an employee with malicious intent conducting data exfiltration for corporate sabotage.

Insiders often exploit their knowledge and access to legitimate corporate tools, presenting a continuous risk to organizations. Defenders must protect their digital estate against threats from both within and outside the organization.

For example, in the summer of 2024, Darktrace / IDENTITY successfully detected a user in a customer environment attempting to steal sensitive data from a trusted Google Workspace service. Despite the use of a legitimate and compliant corporate tool, Darktrace identified anomalies in the user’s behavior that indicated malicious intent.

Attack overview: Insider threat

In June 2024, Darktrace detected unusual activity involving the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) account of a former employee from a customer organization. This individual, who had recently left the company, was observed downloading a significant amount of data in the form of a “.INDD” file (an Adobe InDesign document typically used to create page layouts [1]) from Google Drive.

While the use of Google Drive and other Google Workspace platforms was not unexpected for this employee, Darktrace identified that the user had logged in from an unfamiliar and suspicious IPv6 address before initiating the download. This anomaly triggered a model alert in Darktrace / IDENTITY, flagging the activity as potentially malicious.

A Model Alert in Darktrace / IDENTITY showing the unusual “.INDD” file being downloaded from Google Workspace.
Figure 1: A Model Alert in Darktrace / IDENTITY showing the unusual “.INDD” file being downloaded from Google Workspace.

Following this detection, the customer reached out to Darktrace’s Security Operations Center (SOC) team via the Security Operations Support service for assistance in triaging and investigating the incident further. Darktrace’s SOC team conducted an in-depth investigation, enabling the customer to identify the exact moment of the file download, as well as the contents of the stolen documents. The customer later confirmed that the downloaded files contained sensitive corporate data, including customer details and payment information, likely intended for reuse or sharing with a new employer.

In this particular instance, Darktrace’s Autonomous Response capability was not active, allowing the malicious insider to successfully exfiltrate the files. If Autonomous Response had been enabled, Darktrace would have immediately acted upon detecting the login from an unusual (in this case 100% rare) location by logging out and disabling the SaaS user. This would have provided the customer with the necessary time to review the activity and verify whether the user was authorized to access their SaaS environments.

Conclusion

Insider threats pose a significant challenge for traditional security tools as they involve internal users who are expected to access SaaS platforms. These insiders have preexisting knowledge of the environment, sensitive data, and how to make their activities appear normal, as seen in this case with the use of Google Workspace. This familiarity allows them to avoid having to use more easily detectable intrusion methods like phishing campaigns.

Darktrace’s anomaly detection capabilities, which focus on identifying unusual activity rather than relying on specific rules and signatures, enable it to effectively detect deviations from a user’s expected behavior. For instance, an unusual login from a new location, as in this example, can be flagged even if the subsequent malicious activity appears innocuous due to the use of a trusted application like Google Drive.

Credit to Vivek Rajan (Cyber Analyst) and Ryan Traill (Analyst Content Lead)

Appendices

Darktrace Model Detections

SaaS / Resource::Unusual Download Of Externally Shared Google Workspace File

References

[1]https://www.adobe.com/creativecloud/file-types/image/vector/indd-file.html

MITRE ATT&CK Mapping

Technqiue – Tactic – ID

Data from Cloud Storage Object – COLLECTION -T1530

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About the author
Vivek Rajan
Cyber Analyst

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January 28, 2025

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Reimaginar su SOC: cómo lograr una seguridad de red proactiva

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Introduction: Challenges and solutions to SOC efficiency

For Security Operation Centers (SOCs), reliance on signature or rule-based tools – solutions that are always chasing the latest update to prevent only what is already known – creates an excess of false positives. SOC analysts are therefore overwhelmed by a high volume of context-lacking alerts, with human analysts able to address only about 10% due to time and resource constraints. This forces many teams to accept the risks of addressing only a fraction of the alerts while novel threats go completely missed.

74% of practitioners are already grappling with the impact of an AI-powered threat landscape, which amplifies challenges like tool sprawl, alert fatigue, and burnout. Thus, achieving a resilient network, where SOC teams can spend most of their time getting proactive and stopping threats before they occur, feels like an unrealistic goal as attacks are growing more frequent.

Despite advancements in security technology (advanced detection systems with AI, XDR tools, SIEM aggregators, etc...), practitioners are still facing the same issues of inefficiency in their SOC, stopping them from becoming proactive. How can they select security solutions that help them achieve a proactive state without dedicating more human hours and resources to managing and triaging alerts, tuning rules, investigating false positives, and creating reports?

To overcome these obstacles, organizations must leverage security technology that is able to augment and support their teams. This can happen in the following ways:

  1. Full visibility across the modern network expanding into hybrid environments
  2. Have tools that identifies and stops novel threats autonomously, without causing downtime
  3. Apply AI-led analysis to reduce time spent on manual triage and investigation

Your current solutions might be holding you back

Traditional cybersecurity point solutions are reliant on using global threat intelligence to pattern match, determine signatures, and consequently are chasing the latest update to prevent only what is known. This means that unknown threats will evade detection until a patient zero is identified. This legacy approach to threat detection means that at least one organization needs to be ‘patient zero’, or the first victim of a novel attack before it is formally identified.

Even the point solutions that claim to use AI to enhance threat detection rely on a combination of supervised machine learning, deep learning, and transformers to

train and inform their systems. This entails shipping your company’s data out to a large data lake housed somewhere in the cloud where it gets blended with attack data from thousands of other organizations. The resulting homogenized dataset gets used to train AI systems — yours and everyone else’s — to recognize patterns of attack based on previously encountered threats.

While using AI in this way reduces the workload of security teams who would traditionally input this data by hand, it emanates the same risk – namely, that AI systems trained on known threats cannot deal with the threats of tomorrow. Ultimately, it is the unknown threats that bring down an organization.

The promise and pitfalls of XDR in today's threat landscape

Enter Extended Detection and Response (XDR): a platform approach aimed at unifying threat detection across the digital environment. XDR was developed to address the limitations of traditional, fragmented tools by stitching together data across domains, providing SOC teams with a more cohesive, enterprise-wide view of threats. This unified approach allows for improved detection of suspicious activities that might otherwise be missed in siloed systems.

However, XDR solutions still face key challenges: they often depend heavily on human validation, which can aggravate the already alarmingly high alert fatigue security analysts experience, and they remain largely reactive, focusing on detecting and responding to threats rather than helping prevent them. Additionally, XDR frequently lacks full domain coverage, relying on EDR as a foundation and are insufficient in providing native NDR capabilities and visibility, leaving critical gaps that attackers can exploit. This is reflected in the current security market, with 57% of organizations reporting that they plan to integrate network security products into their current XDR toolset[1].

Why settling is risky and how to unlock SOC efficiency

The result of these shortcomings within the security solutions market is an acceptance of inevitable risk. From false positives driving the barrage of alerts, to the siloed tooling that requires manual integration, and the lack of multi-domain visibility requiring human intervention for business context, security teams have accepted that not all alerts can be triaged or investigated.

While prioritization and processes have improved, the SOC is operating under a model that is overrun with alerts that lack context, meaning that not all of them can be investigated because there is simply too much for humans to parse through. Thus, teams accept the risk of leaving many alerts uninvestigated, rather than finding a solution to eliminate that risk altogether.

Darktrace / NETWORK is designed for your Security Operations Center to eliminate alert triage with AI-led investigations , and rapidly detect and respond to known and unknown threats. This includes the ability to scale into other environments in your infrastructure including cloud, OT, and more.

Beyond global threat intelligence: Self-Learning AI enables novel threat detection & response

Darktrace does not rely on known malware signatures, external threat intelligence, historical attack data, nor does it rely on threat trained machine learning to identify threats.

Darktrace’s unique Self-learning AI deeply understands your business environment by analyzing trillions of real-time events that understands your normal ‘pattern of life’, unique to your business. By connecting isolated incidents across your business, including third party alerts and telemetry, Darktrace / NETWORK uses anomaly chains to identify deviations from normal activity.

The benefit to this is that when we are not predefining what we are looking for, we can spot new threats, allowing end users to identify both known threats and subtle, never-before-seen indicators of malicious activity that traditional solutions may miss if they are only looking at historical attack data.

AI-led investigations empower your SOC to prioritize what matters

Anomaly detection is often criticized for yielding high false positives, as it flags deviations from expected patterns that may not necessarily indicate a real threat or issues. However, Darktrace applies an investigation engine to automate alert triage and address alert fatigue.

Darktrace’s Cyber AI Analyst revolutionizes security operations by conducting continuous, full investigations across Darktrace and third-party alerts, transforming the alert triage process. Instead of addressing only a fraction of the thousands of daily alerts, Cyber AI Analyst automatically investigates every relevant alert, freeing up your team to focus on high-priority incidents and close security gaps.

Powered by advanced machine-learning techniques, including unsupervised learning, models trained by expert analysts, and tailored security language models, Cyber AI Analyst emulates human investigation skills, testing hypotheses, analyzing data, and drawing conclusions. According to Darktrace Internal Research, Cyber AI Analyst typically provides a SOC with up to  50,000 additional hours of Level 2 analysis and written reporting annually, enriching security operations by producing high level incident alerts with full details so that human analysts can focus on Level 3 tasks.

Containing threats with Autonomous Response

Simply quarantining a device is rarely the best course of action - organizations need to be able to maintain normal operations in the face of threats and choose the right course of action. Different organizations also require tailored response functions because they have different standards and protocols across a variety of unique devices. Ultimately, a ‘one size fits all’ approach to automated response actions puts organizations at risk of disrupting business operations.

Darktrace’s Autonomous Response tailors its actions to contain abnormal behavior across users and digital assets by understanding what is normal and stopping only what is not. Unlike blanket quarantines, it delivers a bespoke approach, blocking malicious activities that deviate from regular patterns while ensuring legitimate business operations remain uninterrupted.

Darktrace offers fully customizable response actions, seamlessly integrating with your workflows through hundreds of native integrations and an open API. It eliminates the need for costly development, natively disarming threats in seconds while extending capabilities with third-party tools like firewalls, EDR, SOAR, and ITSM solutions.

Unlocking a proactive state of security

Securing the network isn’t just about responding to incidents — it’s about being proactive, adaptive, and prepared for the unexpected. The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF 2.0) emphasizes this by highlighting the need for focused risk management, continuous incident response (IR) refinement, and seamless integration of these processes with your detection and response capabilities.

Despite advancements in security technology, achieving a proactive posture is still a challenge to overcome because SOC teams face inefficiencies from reliance on pattern-matching tools, which generate excessive false positives and leave many alerts unaddressed, while novel threats go undetected. If SOC teams are spending all their time investigating alerts then there is no time spent getting ahead of attacks.

Achieving proactive network resilience — a state where organizations can confidently address challenges at every stage of their security posture — requires strategically aligned solutions that work seamlessly together across the attack lifecycle.

References

1.       Market Guide for Extended Detection and Response, Gartner, 17thAugust 2023 - ID G00761828

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