Blog
/

Thought Leadership

/
November 27, 2024

AI and Cybersecurity Predictions for 2025

Default blog imageDefault blog imageDefault blog imageDefault blog imageDefault blog imageDefault blog image
27
Nov 2024
This blog outlines ten trends we expect to see in cybersecurity in 2025, from a rise in multi-agent systems to heightened supply chain risk from LLMs.

Each year, Darktrace's AI and cybersecurity experts reflect on the events of the past 12 months and predict the trends we expect to shape the cybersecurity landscape in the year ahead. In 2024, we predicted that the global elections, fast-moving AI innovations, and increasingly cloud-based IT environments would be key factors shaping the cyber threat landscape.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the total addressable market of cybercrime to expand as attackers add more tactics to their toolkits. Threat actors will continue to take advantage of the volatile geopolitical environment and cybersecurity challenges will increasingly move to new frontiers like space. When it comes to AI, we anticipate the innovation in AI agents in 2024 to pave the way for the rise of multi-agent systems in 2025, creating new challenges and opportunities for cybersecurity professionals and attackers alike.

Here are ten trends to watch for in 2025:

The overall Total Addressable Market (TAM) of cybercrime gets bigger

Cybercrime is a global business, and an increasingly lucrative one, scaling through the adoption of AI and cybercrime-as-a-service. Annual revenue from cybercrime is already estimated to be over $8 trillion, which we’ve found is almost 5x greater than the revenue of the Magnificent Seven stocks. There are a few key factors driving this growth.

The ongoing growth of devices and systems means that existing malware families will continue to be successful. As of October 2024, it’s estimated that more than 5.52 billion people (~67%) have access to the internet and sources estimate 18.8 billion connected devices will be online by the end of 2024. The increasing adoption of AI is poised to drive even more interconnected systems as well as new data centers and infrastructure globally.

At the same time, more sophisticated capabilities are available for low-level attackers – we’ve already seen the trickle-down economic benefits of living off the land, edge infrastructure exploitation, and identity-focused exploitation. The availability of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) and Malware-as-a-Service (MaaS) make more advanced tactics the norm. The subscription income that these groups can generate enables more adversarial innovation, so attacks are getting faster and more effective with even bigger financial ramifications.

While there has also been an increasing trend in the last year of improved cross-border law enforcement, the efficacy of these efforts remains to be seen as cybercriminal gangs are also getting more resilient and professionalized. They are building better back-up systems and infrastructure as well as more multi-national networks and supply chains.

Security teams need to prepare for the rise of AI agents and multi-agent systems

Throughout 2024, we’ve seen major announcements about advancements in AI agents from the likes of OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce, and more. In 2025, we’ll see increasing innovation in and adoption of AI agents as well as the emergence of multi-agent systems (or “agent swarms”), where groups of autonomous agents work together to tackle complex tasks.

The rise of AI agents and multi-agent systems will introduce new challenges in cybersecurity, including new attack vectors and vulnerabilities. Security teams need to think about how to protect these systems to prevent data poisoning, prompt injection, or social engineering attacks.

One benefit of multi-agent systems is that agents can autonomously communicate, collaborate, and interact. However without clear and distinct boundaries and explicit permissions, this can also pose a major data privacy risk and avenue for manipulation. These issues cannot be addressed by traditional application testing alone. We must ensure these systems are secure by design, where robust protective mechanisms and data guardrails are built into the foundations.

Threat actors will be the earliest adopters of AI agents and multi-agent systems

We’ve already seen how quickly threat actors have been able to adopt generative AI for tasks like email phishing and reconnaissance. The next frontier for threat actors will be AI agents and multi-agent systems that are specialized in autonomous tasks like surveillance, initial access brokering, privilege escalation, vulnerability exploitation, data summarization for smart exfiltration, and more. Because they have no concern for safe, secure, accurate, and responsible use, adversaries will adopt these systems faster than cyber defenders.

We could also start to see use cases emerge for multi-agent systems in cyber defense – with potential for early use cases in incident response, application testing, and vulnerability discovery. On the whole, security teams will be slower to adopt these systems than adversaries because of the need to put in place proper security guardrails and build trust over time.

There is heightened supply chain risk for Large Language Models (LLMs)

Training LLMs requires a lot of data, and many experts have warned that world is running out of quality data for that training. As a result, there will be an increasing reliance on synthetic data, which can introduce new issues of accuracy and efficacy. Moreover, data supply chain risks will be an Achilles heel for organizations, with the potential interjection of vulnerabilities through the data and machine learning providers that they rely on. Poisoning one data set could have huge trickle-down impacts across many different systems. Data security will be paramount in 2025.

The race to identify software vulnerabilities intensifies

The time it takes for threat actors to exploit newly published CVEs is getting shorter, giving defenders an even smaller window to apply patches and remediations. A 2024 report from Cloudflare found that threat actors quickly weaponized proof of concept exploits in attacks as quickly as 22 minutes after the exploits were made public.

At the same time, 2024 also saw the first reports from researchers across academia and the tech industry using AI for vulnerability discovery in real-world code. With threat actors getting faster at exploiting vulnerabilities, defenders will need to use AI to identify vulnerabilities in their software stack and to help identify and prioritize remediations and patches.

Insider threat risks will force organizations to evolve zero trust strategies

In 2025, an increasingly volatile geopolitical situation and the intensity of the AI race will make insider threats an even bigger risk for businesses, forcing organizations to expand zero-trust strategies. The traditional zero-trust model provides protection from external threats to an organization’s network by requiring continuous verification of the devices and users attempting to access critical business systems, services, and information from multiple sources. However, as we have seen in the more recent Jack Teixeira case, malicious insiders can still do significant damage to an organization within their approved and authenticated boundary.

To circumvent the remaining security gaps in a zero-trust architecture and mitigate increasing risk of insider threats, organizations will need to integrate a behavioral understanding dimension to their zero-trust approaches. The zero-trust best practice of “never trust, always verify” needs to evolve to become “never trust, always verify, and continuously monitor.”

Identity remains an expensive problem for businesses

2024 saw some of the biggest and costliest attacks – all because the attacker had access to compromised credentials. Essentially, they had the key to the front door. Businesses still struggle with identity and access management (IAM), and it’s getting more complex now that we’re in the middle of a massive Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) migration driven by increasing rates of AI and cloud use across businesses.

This challenge is going to be exacerbated in 2025 by a few global and business factors. First, there is an increasing push for digital identities, such as the rollout of the EU Digital Identity Framework that is underway, which could introduce additional attack vectors. As they scale, businesses are turning more and more to centralized identity and access solutions with decentralized infrastructure and relying on SaaS and application-native security.

Increasing vulnerabilities at the edge

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations had to stand-up remote access solutions quickly – in a matter of days or weeks – without the high level of due diligence that they require to be fully secured. In 2025, we expect to see continued fall-out as these quickly spun-up solutions start to present genuine vulnerability to businesses. We’ve already seen this start to play out in 2024 with the mass-exploitation of internet-edge devices like firewalls and VPN gateway products.

By July 2024, Darktrace’s threat research team observed that the most widely exploited edge infrastructure devices were those related to Ivanti Connect Secure, JetBrains TeamCity, FortiClient Enterprise Management Server, and Palo Alto Networks PAN-OS. Across the industry, we’ve already seen many zero days and vulnerabilities exploiting these internet-connected devices, which provide inroads into the network and store/cache credentials and passwords of other users that are highly valuable for threat actors.

Hacking Operational Technology (OT) gets easier

Hacking OT is notoriously complex – causing damage requires an intimate knowledge of the specific systems being targeted and historically was the reserve of nation states. But as OT has become more reliant and integrated with IT systems, attackers have stumbled on ways to cause disruption without having to rely on the sophisticated attack-craft normally associated with nation-state groups. That’s why some of the most disruptive attacks of the last year have come from hacktivist and financially-motivated criminal gangs – such as the hijacking of internet-exposed Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) by anti-Israel hacking groups and ransomware attacks resulting in the cancellation of hospital operations.  

In 2025, we expect to see an increase in cyber-physical disruption caused by threat groups motivated by political ideology or financial gain, bringing the OT threat landscape closer in complexity and scale to that of the IT landscape. The sectors most at risk are those with a strong reliance on IoT sensors, including healthcare, transportation, and manufacturing sectors.

Securing space infrastructure and systems becomes a critical imperative

The global space industry is growing at an incredibly fast pace, and 2025 is on track to be another record-breaking year for spaceflight with major missions and test flights planned by NASA, ESA, CNSA as well as the expected launch of the first commercial space station from Vast and programs from Blue Origin, Amazon and more. Research from Analysis Mason suggests that 38,000 additional satellites will be built and launched by 2033 and the global space industry revenue will reach $1.7 trillion by 2032. Space has also been identified as a focus area for the incoming US administration.

In 2025, we expect to see new levels of tension emerge as private and public infrastructure increasingly intersect in space, shining a light on the lack of agreed upon cyber norms and the increasing challenge of protecting complex and remote space systems against modern cyber threats.  Historically focused on securing earth-bound networks and environments, the space industry will face challenges as post-orbit threats rise, with satellites moving up the target list.

The EU’s NIS2 Directive now recognizes the space sector as an essential entity that is subject to its most strict cybersecurity requirements. Will other jurisdictions follow suit? We expect global debates about cyber vulnerabilities in space to come to the forefront as we become more reliant on space-based technology.

Preparing for the future

Whatever 2025 brings, Darktrace is committed to providing robust cybersecurity leadership and solutions to enterprises around the world. Our team of subject matter experts will continue to monitor emerging threat trends, advising both our customers and our product development teams.

And for day-to-day security, our multi-layered AI cybersecurity platform can protect against all types of threats, whether they are known, unknown, entirely novel, or powered by AI. It accomplishes this by learning what is normal for your unique organization, therefore identifying unusual and suspicious behavior at machine speed, regardless of existing rules and signatures. In this way, organizations with Darktrace can be ready for any developments in the cybersecurity threat landscape that the new year may bring.

Discover more about AI cybersecurity in the white paper “CISO’s Guide to Buying AI

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Author
The Darktrace Community
Book a 1-1 meeting with one of our experts
Share this article

More in this series

No items found.

Blog

/

November 27, 2024

/
No items found.

Darktrace leading the future of Network Detection and Response with recognition from KuppingerCole

Default blog imageDefault blog image

KuppingerCole has recognized Darktrace as an overall Leader, Product Leader, Market Leader and Innovation Leader in the KuppingerCole Leadership Compass: Network Detection and Response (2024).

With the perimeter all but dissolved, Network Detection and Response (NDR) tools are quickly becoming a critical component of the security stack, as the main tool to span the modern network. NDRs connect on-premises infrastructure to cloud, remote workers, identities, SaaS applications, and IoT/OT – something not available to EDR that requires agents and isolates visibility to individual devices.

KuppingerCole Analysts AG designated Darktrace an ‘Overall Leader’ position because of our continual innovation around user-led security. Self-Learning AI together with automated triage through Cyber AI Analyst and real-time autonomous response actions have been instrumental to security teams in stopping potential threats before they become a breach. With this time saved, Darktrace is leading beyond reactive security to truly harden a network, allowing the team to spend more time in preventive security measures.

Network Detection and Response protects where others fail to reach

NDR solutions operate at the network level, deploying inside or parallel to your network to ingest raw traffic via virtual or physical sensors. This gives them unprecedented potential to identify anomalies and possible breaches in any network - far beyond simple on-prem, into dynamic virtual environments, cloud or hybrid networks, cloud applications, and even remote devices accessing the corporate network via ZTNA or VPN.

Rather than looking at processes level data, NDR can detect the lateral movement of an adversary across multiple assets by analyzing network traffic patterns which endpoint solutions may not be able to identify [1]. In the face of a growing, complex environment, organizations large and small, will benefit from using NDRs either in conjunction, or as the foundation for, their Extended Detection and Response (XDR) for a unified view that improves their overall threat detection, ease of investigation and faster response times.

Today's NDR solutions are expected to include advanced ML and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms [1]

Traditional IDS & IPS systems are labor intensive, requiring continuous rule creation, outdated signature maintenance, and manual monitoring for false positives or incorrect actions. This is no longer viable against a higher volume and changing landscape, making NDR the natural network tool to level against these evolutions. The role of AI in NDRs is designed to meet this challenge, “to reduce both the labor need for analysis and false positives, as well as add value by improving anomaly detection and overall security posture” .

Celebrating success in leadership and innovation

Darktrace is proud to have been recognized as an NDR “Overall Leader” in KuppingerCole Analyst AG’s Leadership Compass. The report gave further recognition to Darktrace as a ‘Product Leader”, “Innovation Leader” and “Market Leader”.

Maximum scores were received for core product categories, in addition to market presence and financial strength. Particular attention was directed to our innovation. This year has seen several NDR updates via Darktrace’s ActiveAI Security Platform version 6.2 which has enhanced investigation workflows and provided new AI transparency within the toolset.

Positive scores were also received for Darktrace’s deployment ecosystem and surrounding support, minimizing the need for extraneous integrations through a unique platform architecture that connects with over 90 other vendors.

High Scores received in Darktrace’s KuppingerCole Spider Chart across Core NDR capability areas
Figure 1: High Scores received in Darktrace’s KuppingerCole Spider Chart across Core NDR capability areas

Darktrace’s pioneering AI approach sets it apart

Darktrace / NETWORK’s approach is fundamentally different to other NDRs. Continual anomaly-based detection (our Self-Learning AI), understands what is normal across each of your network entities, and then examines deviations from these behaviors rather than needing to apply static rules or ML to adversary techniques. As a result, Darktrace / NETWORK can focus on surfacing the novel threats that cannot be anticipated, whilst our proactive solutions expose gaps that can be exploited and reduce the risk of known threats.    

Across the millions of possible network events that may occur, Darktrace’s Cyber AI Analyst reduces that manual workload for SOC teams by presenting only what is most important in complete collated incidents. This accelerates SOC Level 2 analyses of incidents by 10x2, giving time back, first for any necessary response and then for preventive workflows.

Finally, when incidents begin to escalate, Darktrace can natively (or via third-party) autonomously respond and take precise actions based on a contextual understanding of both the affected assets and incident in question so that threats can be disarmed without impacting wider operations.

Within the KuppingerCole report, several standout strengths were listed:

  • Cyber AI Analyst was celebrated as a core differentiator, enhancing both visibility and investigation into critical network issues and allowing a faster response.
  • Darktrace / NETWORK was singled for its user benefits. Both a clear interface for analysts with advanced filtering and analytical tools, and efficient role-based access control (RBAC) and configuration options for administrators.
  • At the product level, Darktrace was recognized for complete network traffic analysis (NTA) capabilities allowing extensive analysis into components like application use/type, fingerprinting, source/destination communication, in addition to comprehensive protocol support across a range of network device types from IT, OT, IoT and mobiles and detailed MITRE ATT&CK mapping.
  • Finally, at the heart of it, Darktrace’s innovation was highlighted in relation to its intrinsic Self Learning AI, utilizing multiple layers of deep learning, neural networks, LLMs, NLP, Generative AI and more to understand network activity and filter it for what’s critical on an individual customer level.

Going beyond reactive security

Darktrace’s visibility and AI-enabled detection, investigation and response enable security teams to focus on hardening gaps in their network through contextual relevance & priority. Darktrace / NETWORK explicitly gives time back to security teams allowing them to focus on the bigger strategic and governance workflows that sometimes get overlooked. This is enabled through proactive solutions intrinsically connected to our NDR:

  • Darktrace / Proactive Exposure Management, which looks beyond just CVE risks to instead discover, prioritize and validate risks by business impact and how to mobilize against them early, to reduce the number of real threats security teams face.
  • Darktrace / Incident Readiness & Recovery, a solution rather than service-based approach to incident response (IR) that lets teams respond in the best way to each incident and proactively test their familiarity and effectiveness of IR workflows with sophisticated incident simulations involving their own analysts and assets.

Together, these solutions allow Darktrace / NETWORK to go beyond the traditional NDR and shift teams to a more hardened and proactive state.

Putting customers first

Customers continue to sit at the forefront of Darktrace R&D, with their emerging needs and pain points being the direct inspiration for our continued innovation.

This year Darktrace / NETWORK has protected thousands of customers against the latest attacks, from data exfil and destruction, to unapproved privilege escalation and ransomware including strains like Medusa, Qilin and AlphV BlackCat.

In each instance, Darktrace / NETWORK was able to provide a holistic lens of the anomalies present in their traffic, collated those that were important, and either responded or gave teams the ability to take targeted actions against their threats – even when adversaries pivoted. In one example of a Gootloader compromise, Darktrace ensured a SOC went from detection to recovery within 5 days, 92.8% faster than the average containment time of 69 days.

Results like these, focused on user-led security, have secured Darktrace’s position within the latest NDR Leadership Compass.

To find out more about what makes Darktrace / NETWORK special, read the full KuppingerCole report.

References

[1] Osman Celik, KuppingerCole Leadership Compass:Network Detection and Response (2024)

[2] Darktrace's AI Analyst customer fleet data

[3] https://www.ibm.com/reports/data-breach

Continue reading
About the author
Gabriel Few-Wiegratz
Product Marketing Manager

Blog

/

November 27, 2024

/

Inside the SOC

Phishing and persistence: Darktrace’s role in defending against a sophisticated account takeover

Default blog imageDefault blog image

The exploitation of SaaS platforms

As businesses continue to grow and evolve, the need for sharing ideas through productivity and cloud Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platforms is becoming increasingly crucial. However, these platforms have also become prime targets for cyber attackers.

Threat actors often exploit these widely-used services to gain unauthorized access, steal sensitive information, and disrupt business operations. The growing reliance on SaaS platforms makes them attractive entry points for cybercriminals, who use sophisticated techniques such as phishing, social engineering, and malware to compromise these systems.

Services like Microsoft 365 are regularly targeted by threat actors looking for an entry point into an organization’s environment to carry out malicious activities. Securing these platforms is crucial to protect business data and ensure operational continuity.

Darktrace / EMAIL detection of the phishing attack

In a recent case, Darktrace observed a customer in the manufacturing sector receiving a phishing email that led to a threat actor logging in and creating an email rule. Threat actors often create email rules to move emails to their inbox, avoiding detection. Additionally, Darktrace detected a spoofed domain registered by the threat actor. Despite already having access to the customer’s SaaS account, the actor seemingly registered this domain to maintain persistence on the network, allowing them to communicate with the spoofed domain and conduct further malicious activity.

Darktrace / EMAIL can help prevent compromises like this one by blocking suspicious emails as soon as they are identified. Darktrace’s AI-driven email detection and response recognizes anomalies that might indicate phishing attempts and applies mitigative actions autonomously to prevent the escalation of an attack.

Unfortunately, in this case, Darktrace was not configured in Autonomous Response mode at the time of the attack, meaning actions had to be manually applied by the customer’s security team. Had it been fully enabled, it would have held the emails, preventing them from reaching the intended recipient and stopping the attack at its inception.

However, Darktrace’s Managed Threat Detection alerted the Security Operations Center (SOC) team to the compromise, enabling them to thoroughly investigate the incident and notify the customer before further damage could occur.

The Managed Threat Detection service continuously monitors customer networks for suspicious activities that may indicate an emerging threat. When such activities are detected, alerts are sent to Darktrace’s expert Cyber Analysts for triage, significantly speeding up the remediation process.

Attack Overview

On May 2, 2024, Darktrace detected a threat actor targeting a customer in the manufacturing sector then an unusual login to their SaaS environment was observed prior to the creation of a new email rule.

Darktrace immediately identified the login as suspicious due to the rarity of the source IP (31.222.254[.]27) and ASN, coupled with the absence of multi-factor authentication (MFA), which was typically required for this account.

The new email rule was intended to mark emails as read and moved to the ‘Conversation History’ folder for inbound emails from a specific domain. The rule was named “….,,,”, likely the attacker attempting to setup their new rule with an unnoteworthy name to ensure it would not be noticed by the account’s legitimate owner. Likewise, by moving emails from a specific domain to ‘Conversation History’, a folder that is rarely used by most users, any phishing emails sent by that domain would remain undetected by the user.

Darktrace’s detection of the unusual SaaS login and subsequent creation of the new email rule “….,,,”.
Figure 1: Darktrace’s detection of the unusual SaaS login and subsequent creation of the new email rule “….,,,”.

The domain in question was identified as being newly registered and an example of a typosquat domain. Typosquatting involves registering new domains with intentional misspelling designed to convince users to visit fake, and often malicious, websites. This technique is often used in phishing campaigns to create a sense of legitimacy and trust and deceive users into providing sensitive information. In this case, the suspicious domain closely resembled several of the customer’s internal domains, indicating an attempt to impersonate the organization’s legitimate internal sites to gain the target’s trust. Furthermore, the creation of this lookalike domain suggests that the attack was highly targeted at this specific customer.

Interestingly, the threat actor registered this spoofed domain despite already having account access. This was likely intended to ensure persistence on the network without having to launch additional phishing attacks. Such use of spoofed domain could allow an attacker to maintain a foothold in their target network and escalate their malicious activities without having to regain access to the account. This persistence can be used for various purposes, including data exfiltration, spreading malware, or launching further attacks.

Following this, Darktrace detected a highly anomalous email being sent to the customer’s account from the same location as the initial unsual SaaS login. Darktrace’s anomaly-based detection is able to identify threats that human security teams and traditional signature-based methods might miss. By analyzing the expected behavior of network users, Darktrace can recognize the subtle deviations from the norm that may indicate malicious activity. Unfortunately, in this instance, without Darktrace’s Autonomous Response capability enabled, the phishing email was able to successfully reach the recipient. While Darktrace / EMAIL did suggest that the email should be held from the recipients inbox, the customer was required to manually approve it.

Despite this, the Darktrace SOC team were still able to support the customer as they were subscribed to the Managed Threat Detection service. Following the detection of the highlight anomalous activity surrounding this compromise, namely the unusual SaaS login followed by a new email rule, an alert was sent to the Darktrace SOC for immediate triage, who then contacted the customer directly urging immediate action.

Conclusion

This case underscores the need to secure SaaS platforms like Microsoft 365 against sophisticated cyber threats. As businesses increasingly rely on these platforms, they become prime targets for attackers seeking unauthorized access and disruption.

Darktrace’s anomaly-based detection and response capabilities are crucial in identifying and mitigating such threats. In this instance, Darktrace detected a phishing email that led to a threat actor logging in and creating a suspicious email rule. The actor also registered a spoofed domain to maintain persistence on the network.

Darktrace / EMAIL, with its AI-driven detection and analysis, can block suspicious emails before they reach the intended recipient, preventing attacks at their inception. Meanwhile, Darktrace’s SOC team promptly investigated the activity and alerted the customer to the compromise, enabling them to take immediate action to remediate the issue and prevent any further damage.

Credit to Vivek Rajan (Cyber Security Analyst) and Ryan Traill (Threat Content Lead).

Appendices

Darktrace Model Detections

  • SaaS / Access / Unusual External Source for SaaS Credential Use
  • SaaS / Compromise / Login From Rare Endpoint While User Is Active
  • SaaS / Resource / Unusual Access to Delegated Resource by Non Owner
  • SaaS / Email Nexus / Unusual Login Location Following Sender Spoof
  • Compliance / Anomalous New Email Rule
  • SaaS / Compromise / Unusual Login and New Email Rule

Indicators of Compromise (IoCs)

IoC - Type - Description + Confidence

31.222.254[.]27 – IP -  Suspicious Login Endpoint

MITRE ATT&CK Mapping

Tactic – Technqiue – Sub-technique of (if applicable)

Cloud Accounts - DEFENSE EVASION, PERSISTENCE, PRIVILEGE ESCALATION, INITIAL ACCESS - T1078.004 - T1078

Cloud Service Dashboard – DISCOVERY - T1538

Compromise Accounts - RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT - T1586

Steal Web Session Cookie - CREDENTIAL ACCESS - T1539

Outlook Rules – PERSISTENCE - T1137.005 - T1137

Continue reading
About the author
Vivek Rajan
Cyber Analyst
Your data. Our AI.
Elevate your network security with Darktrace AI